The Prediction of Number of Deaths by COVID-19 in Gujarat, India.

Abstract

We have used a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths occurred due to the corona virus (COVID-19) infections in Gujarat, the western state of India. The model used here comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known as SI model. It assumes that there is no recovery assuming that all recovered are again susceptible to infection. In that case the dynamical equations can be solved analytically, and the result is extended to describe the function that depends on three parameters that we can fit to the data. This allows us to make predictions for the development of the disease in Gujarat.